3 de Noviembrevs
Fernando De La Mora
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Intermedia · 10/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
3 de Noviembre 3-2 Fernando De La Mora
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 22:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.50 | 35.7% | 36.1% | 0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 28.7% | 30.3% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.51 | 35.6% | 33.5% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.3%
Model confidence
36.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40