22 de Juliovs
El Nacional
COMPLETEDEcuador · Liga Pro Serie B · 10/7/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
El Nacional · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: 22 de Julio 0-0 El Nacional, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
22 de Julio 2-5 El Nacional
Original prediction
El Nacional
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 13:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.41 | 26.3% | 31.1% | 4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 24.9% | 30.4% | 5.4 pts |
| Away | 1.84 | 48.8% | 38.6% | -10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.2 pts
Projected Score
22 de Julio 0–0 El Nacional
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
El Nacional
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
El Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 19 · avg 1.00/3.80
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80