1899 Hoffenheimvs
VfB Stuttgart
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 9/12/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
VfB Stuttgart · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 VfB Stuttgart
Original prediction
VfB Stuttgart
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 40.7% | 37.7% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.00 | 23.7% | 24.5% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.67 | 35.6% | 37.8% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.2–28%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
VfB Stuttgart
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
VfB Stuttgart has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60