1899 Hoffenheimvs
Lyon
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/22/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lyon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 Lyon
Original prediction
Lyon
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 06:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 45.7% | 32.6% | -13.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.95 | 23.9% | 25.3% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.12 | 30.4% | 42.1% | 11.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Lyon
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Lyon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
1899 HoffenheimWLLLL
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LyonWWLWW
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
1899 HoffenheimLyon
33.3Attack83.3
16.7Defence50.0
0.0Form100.0
21.5Power83.3
1.24xG1.93