1899 Hoffenheimvs
Hamburger SV
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/10/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
1899 Hoffenheim · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 Hamburger SV
Original prediction
1899 Hoffenheim
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.42 | 66.8% | 55.0% | -11.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.00 | 19.0% | 21.8% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 6.68 | 14.2% | 23.3% | 9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
1899 Hoffenheim
Probability
55.0%
Model confidence
55.0%
1899 Hoffenheim has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60