1899 Hoffenheimvs
Borussia Dortmund
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 9/5/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Borussia Dortmund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 Borussia Dortmund
Original prediction
Borussia Dortmund
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.75 | 34.4% | 32.5% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 25.1% | 26.1% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.34 | 40.5% | 41.4% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Borussia Dortmund
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Borussia Dortmund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80