1899 Hoffenheimvs
Beşiktaş
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/15/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Beşiktaş · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 Beşiktaş
Original prediction
Beşiktaş
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 06:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 48.4% | 30.7% | -17.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.94 | 24.1% | 26.3% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.45 | 27.5% | 42.9% | 15.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Beşiktaş
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Beşiktaş has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20