1899 Hoffenheimvs
Bayer Leverkusen
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/25/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bayer Leverkusen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-3 (7%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 Bayer Leverkusen
Original prediction
Bayer Leverkusen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.14 | 30.2% | 26.0% | -4.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.06 | 23.4% | 20.5% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.04 | 46.4% | 53.5% | 7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–37%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Bayer Leverkusen
Probability
53.5%
Model confidence
53.5%
Bayer Leverkusen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80