Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd
Tuesday, 21 July 202617:30Last updated 10:08
1860 Rosenheim

1860 Rosenheim

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Schalding-Heining

Schalding-Heining

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GoalVio prediction
53% confidence
1860 Rosenheim(53%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
1860 Rosenheim
53%
Draw
25%
Schalding-Heining
21%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.59 xG for 1860 Rosenheim and 1.43 xG for Schalding-Heining — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. The xG gap between the sides is narrow (0.15), meaning neither defence is expected to completely shut the other out.Historical meetings reinforce this projection — both teams have scored in 6 of their last 7 encounters, a pattern consistent with the current xG picture.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 3.02 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating elevated xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.Historical meetings between these sides have averaged 4.3 goals per game — a high-scoring pattern that aligns with the current xG projection and adds further weight to the over 2.5 case.

Probability breakdown

53% confidence
1860 Rosenheim53%
Draw25%
Schalding-Heining21%

1860 Rosenheim leads with 53% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

1860 Rosenheim Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

1860 Rosenheim take on Schalding-Heining in Oberliga - Bayern Süd.

Key factors

: ⚠️ Upset Risk Schalding-Heining have won 0 of their last 5 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While 1860 Rosenheim carry the stronger underlying metrics, Schalding-Heining's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

1860 Rosenheim hold a slim but consistent edge across the key input metrics. No single factor clears the threshold required to claim a material advantage, but chance quality, defensive organisation, and recent form all point in the same direction — and when multiple independent signals align, that convergence is the model's case for 1860 Rosenheim.

Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours 1860 Rosenheim, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Schalding-Heining score first, the game becomes genuinely open.

Risk factors

  • These sides have drawn 4 of their last 7 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
  • The xG gap is narrow at 0.15 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win 1860 Rosenheim vs Schalding-Heining?

GoalVio's model predicts 1860 Rosenheim to win with 53% confidence.

What is the predicted score for 1860 Rosenheim vs Schalding-Heining?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in 1860 Rosenheim vs Schalding-Heining?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in 1860 Rosenheim vs Schalding-Heining?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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