1. FC Nürnbergvs
FC Ingolstadt 04
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies Clubs · 10/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
1. FC Nürnberg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
1. FC Nürnberg 3-1 FC Ingolstadt 04
Original prediction
1. FC Nürnberg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 60.9% | 49.0% | -11.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.15 | 22.0% | 25.6% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 5.32 | 17.1% | 25.4% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
1. FC Nürnberg
Probability
49.0%
Model confidence
49.0%
1. FC Nürnberg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60