1. FC Nürnbergvs
Arminia Bielefeld
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 8/29/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
1. FC Nürnberg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
1. FC Nürnberg 4-1 Arminia Bielefeld
Original prediction
1. FC Nürnberg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 42.2% | 44.7% | 2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 26.1% | 25.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.95 | 31.8% | 29.4% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
1. FC Nürnberg
Probability
44.7%
Model confidence
44.7%
1. FC Nürnberg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00