1. FC Magdeburgvs
Holstein Kiel
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 8/30/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
1. FC Magdeburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
1. FC Magdeburg 2-0 Holstein Kiel
Original prediction
1. FC Magdeburg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 44.1% | 40.3% | -3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 25.4% | 25.4% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 3.08 | 30.4% | 34.2% | 3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
1. FC Magdeburg
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
1. FC Magdeburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00