1. FC Kölnvs
Werder Bremen
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 9/12/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
1. FC Köln · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder Bremen
Original prediction
1. FC Köln
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 45.6% | 41.9% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 25.7% | 25.1% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.31 | 28.7% | 33.0% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.70 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
1. FC Köln
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
1. FC Köln has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60