1. FC Kölnvs
FC Schalke 04
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/24/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
1. FC Köln · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
1. FC Köln 0-0 FC Schalke 04
Original prediction
1. FC Köln
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 45.5% | 42.0% | -3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 25.7% | 26.0% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.29 | 28.8% | 31.9% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.69 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
1. FC Köln
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
1. FC Köln has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00