1. FC Kölnvs
Borussia Mönchengladbach
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/11/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
1. FC Köln · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
1. FC Köln 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
Original prediction
1. FC Köln
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 45.7% | 47.3% | 1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 25.1% | 23.6% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.24 | 29.3% | 29.2% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
1. FC Köln
Probability
47.3%
Model confidence
47.3%
1. FC Köln has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 10 · GA 14 · avg 2.00/2.80