FC Heidenheimvs
Holstein Kiel
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 9/13/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Heidenheim · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Heidenheim 1-0 Holstein Kiel
Original prediction
FC Heidenheim
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 42.7% | 48.9% | 6.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 25.4% | 22.9% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.93 | 31.9% | 28.2% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.3–17%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
FC Heidenheim
Probability
48.9%
Model confidence
48.9%
FC Heidenheim has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 16 · avg 2.20/3.20
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60