GGOALVIO

Portugal · Liga 3 · 8/13/2023, 5:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Caldas · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1

Highconfidence

1º Dezembro are 1W-1D-0L in their last 2 (DW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded, while Caldas are 2W-1D-0L in their last 3 (DWW), averaging 2.33 scored and 1.33 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 5 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Caldas hold a 16.0-point power-rating edge (40.1 v 56.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.3% in the Liga 3, while Caldas holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 34% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Caldas

Probability

48.3%

Model confidence

48.3%

Caldas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

1º DezembroDW

GF 2 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.50

BTTS 1/2O2.5 0/2
CaldasDWW

GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 2.33/1.33

BTTS 2/3O2.5 2/3
1º DezembroCaldas
25.0Attack53.6
56.0Defence53.6
32.1Form54.8
40.1Power56.2
0.71xG1.36
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