Mon 21 Sept, 23:00
COMPLETED
Goalvio Match Preview
Guabirá hold a narrow model edge despite San Antonio Bulo Bulo’s stronger ratings
Guabirá have a 38.77% win probability, giving them the highest individual outcome probability, but the forecast remains finely balanced against San Antonio Bulo Bulo. The draw probability is 27.89%, while San Antonio Bulo Bulo have a 33.34% away-win probability. The rating profile favours the visitors: San Antonio Bulo Bulo carry a 71.4 Power Rating and 1086 Elo, compared with Guabirá’s 33.1 Power Rating and 932 Elo. However, Guabirá’s recent five-match record is DWWWD, with three wins, two draws and no losses, whereas San Antonio Bulo Bulo’s record is LLLWD. Guabirá have also scored 9 goals and conceded 3 across that sample, while San Antonio Bulo Bulo have scored 3 and conceded 12. The match has a 61% BTTS probability and a 57.28% Over 2.5 probability, indicating credible scoring potential. Expected goals are 1.62 for Guabirá and 1.38 for San Antonio Bulo Bulo, so the central narrative is a close contest in which Guabirá’s recent form offsets the visitors’ stronger broader ratings.
Key edge
Recent performance is the clearest counterweight to the ratings gap. Guabirá’s last-five record is DWWWD, with 9 goals scored and 3 conceded. San Antonio Bulo Bulo’s record is LLLWD, with 3 goals scored and 12 conceded.
Biggest risk
Guabirá have a 38.77% win probability, but the lead over San Antonio Bulo Bulo’s 33.34% away-win probability is limited. The visitors’ stronger Power Rating, Elo and standings position create a substantial statistical challenge, while the 27.89% draw probability reinforces the uncertainty.
Expected match shape
The model indicates a competitive match with meaningful scoring potential. Guabirá have 1.62 expected goals and San Antonio Bulo Bulo have 1.38 expected goals. The match has a 61% BTTS probability and a 57.28% Over 2.5 probability, supporting an open rather than purely low-scoring outlook.
Match finished
- GuabiráTimeSan Antonio Bulo Bulo
- Full time
- 86'A. TerrazasYellow Card
- 78'S. VillamilYellow Card
- 74'L. YanaricoSubstitution 5
- T. ChavezSubstitution 574'
- G. PeredoSubstitution 474'
- RafinhaSubstitution 374'
- RafinhaYellow Card69'
- Thiago RibeiroYellow Card64'
- V. AbregoSubstitution 262'
- 61'M. De LimaSubstitution 4
- 60'S. GuerraSubstitution 3
- 52'L. GiossaYellow Card
- 46'C. PreciadoSubstitution 2
- 46'A. MedinaSubstitution 1
- HT
- T. ChavezNormal Goal44'
- S. GarzonNormal Goal35'
- L. UrsinoSubstitution 134'
- 14'C. PreciadoNormal Goal